Changan Automobile (000625): Ford in 18 years, the pressure of autonomous pressure surges and bottoming is about to rebound


Changan Automobile (000625): Ford in 18 years, the pressure of autonomous pressure surges and bottoming is about to rebound
Event: The company announced the 2018 annual report and included revenue 663.0 billion, down 17.1%; return to mother’s profit 6.800 million, down 90.5%; deduct non-profit -31.700 million, compared with 57 in 2017.200 million; gross profit margin 14.7%, an increase of 1.3pct; net interest rate 1.1%, down 7.9 points. Mazda stabilizes Ford’s expectations and expects to improve quarter by quarter in 2019.Changan Ford’s revenue in 2018 was 497.500 million, down 53.0%; probably 8.0 billion, a profit of 12.2 billion in 2017.Changan 西安耍耍网 Mazda made a profit of 25.300 million, down 0.8%, Changan PSA can reach 8.700 million.We estimate that Changan Ford in 2018Q4 is expected to be about 2 billion, and Changan Ford in 2019Q1 is expected to gradually narrow to 1 billion.Taking into account the recovery of the auto market and the increase in promotional efforts, we believe that Changan Ford’s earnings will improve quarter by quarter. Changan’s autonomy has intensified, and the probability is narrowed in 2019.Changan Autonomous expects -27 in 2018.400 million, ranking -11 in 2017.The increase of US $ 600 billion was mainly due to the growth of the Changan V standard and the expansion of new businesses.We think that it is possible that CS35plus, CS85, CS75plus and other heavy models will be listed one after another. The V standard is expected to be narrowed. Changan New Energy is converted. Subsidiaries such as Chelian are seeking social financing.Comes excellent narrowing. During the period, the rate of cost increased, and government subsidies increased significantly.The company’s sales expense ratio in 2018 was 8.0%, an increase of 3.0pct, the increase was mainly due to the adjustment of dealer rebates from cost to sales expenses, leading to an increase in gross profit margin and an increase in sales expense ratio; management expense ratio4.2%, an increase of 0.5pct, R & D expense ratio 3.8%, an increase of 0.6pct, financial expense ratio -0.6%, flat for one year; cost rate during the period is 15.4%, an increase of 4.5 points.The company’s non-recurring profit and loss in 201838.500 million, commented on 14.200 million significant increase. In 18 years, Ford, the pressure of autonomy surged, and its bottoming performance was about to rebound.2018 and 2019Q1 are the most stressful moments for Changan Automobile. Escape in 2019 and the domestic production of Lincoln. The listing of a number of new models of Changan’s autonomous vehicles promoted the company’s profitability to rebound rapidly, and the company entered a multi-year recovery period.We adjusted our profit forecast and expect the company EPS to be -0 in 2019-2021.11, 0.94, 1.12 yuan to maintain the level of “prudent increase”. Risk warning: poor sales of passenger cars, poor feedback on new products